The future of vinyl

[tonky]

Well there's a prominent poster (of sorts) on this site I would like to volunteer for the direct brain music injectors (no anaesthetic required of course - he's so thick skinned!)

But - on a serious note - I still think that the cd format will still be around both in HMV type shops (and charity shops!)

A future format - flash (usb) drives. They are becoming so cheap and with mass production could be very convenient. Easy to lose tho - but stored in a shoe box!.

tonky

 

[The_Lhc]

A future format - flash (usb) drives. They are becoming so cheap and with mass production could be very convenient. Easy to lose tho - but stored in a shoe box!.

I was waiting for someone to say that, that's not a format, it's just storage, it's like saying a hard drive is a format. It isn't. Besides, what's the point? Anything that can read a USB drive can read from a network, so you might as well download the files, physical formats for digital audio are a waste of time.

 

[tonky]

It's all storage of one sort or another. It might be a way of lossless (or hi-res ) files being carried around. It all depends on what the buying public want. Just a thought anyway.

tonky

 

[Vladimir]

Keyword here is distribution of music. Distribution format, not storage format. Storage has gone full digital without exception. Deteriorating old master tapes, shellacs and vinyls are just museum pieces.

Perfect distribution is streaming because it doesn't involve costs of physical media and the user keeps no copy, just pays the licence fee through subscription. This eliminates pirating and gives you access to huge musical library immediately instead of taking years to collect.

 

[MrReaper182]

I collect portable cassette players but I'm not calling them the future format just because I like them.

 

[manicm]

But people would always want to collect things, and anyway all portables would have to connect to the internet permanently, if I have a nice hires A&K, and want my streaming on tap in the absence of local storage/playback.

I don't see that happening even in 5 years. Streaming is not about cutting out piracy, it's more akin to charging for oxygen. Just taking the 'Home Taping Is Killing Music' to draconian levels.

Music labels and Spotify will never be about altruism. Don't fool yourselves. And therefore true convenience may never materialise.

All in all just another brick in the wall.

 

[Waxy]

But in the future, we will probably have newer new formats that we don't have for the moment. Direct brain music injectors could probably be in place in 40 years.

*crazy*

 

[Covenanter]

I don't think we have any idea what the formats will be in the future. Somebody may come up with something as game-changing as the web was in its day and the world will change yet again.

Chris

 

[Frank Harvey]

Au contraire, personally I think the CD and new CD players will still be around in 5 years time. More than anyone cares to think. And I do believe some players are more equal than others.

There's too many CDs in circulation, and too many homes/cars etc with a CD player for it to die out for quite some time.

As hinted at, but not really taken into full consideration, is the amount of used media that is bought compared to new. All published figures are based on new sales only, not used, so my guess would be that the used vinyl market is at least equal to new vinyl sales. I rarely buy new CDs anymore, basically because I buy my favourite stuff on vinyl (new), then try and buy it on CD as well for as little as possible to keep the overall cost per album down.

I'd rather buy used CDs than subscribe to streaming services.

 

[Frank Harvey]

But in the future, we will probably have newer new formats that we don't have for the moment. Direct brain music injectors could probably be in place in 40 years.

Naah. For the same reasons we'll never see flying cars or teleportation systems.

 

[BIGBERNARDBRESSLAW]

Well in 10, 15, 20 years vinyl will retract again, probably. But I wouldn't be surprised if CD also lasts as long.

I'm not saying people won't still own CD players in 20 years time, but I'd bet big money that new CDs will not be being produced. There might be a disc format, but it will not be the CD as we know it. Never.

 

[Frank Harvey]

Perfect distribution is streaming because it doesn't involve costs of physical media and the user keeps no copy, just pays the licence fee through subscription. This eliminates pirating and gives you access to huge musical library immediately instead of taking years to collect.

I agree with everything you have said. As far as the corporate machine goes, this is perfect, but how long before the public "backlash" against 'non ownership' by buying some other format? And is that what is possibly happening now with vinyl?

I don't mind paying, as long as I own it.

 

[Frank Harvey]

Streaming is not about cutting out piracy, it's more akin to charging for oxygen.

Agreed.

As long as people have access to download stuff for free, streaming will never cut out piracy.

 

[Vladimir]

You can't clone, copy or pirate vinyl, and it's a fragile perishable media. That makes it good too, from a corporate perspective.

Man, they really shot themselves in the foot with cassettes. Then PCs with CD-Rs came along, followed by mp3 and torrents.

 

[Frank Harvey]

You can't clone, copy or pirate vinyl, and it's a fragile perishable media. That makes it good too, from a corporate perspective.

Agreed, but I don't think it's as fragile as many think, as long as it is looked after. I have records from the early 80s that still sound like new.

 

[The_Lhc]

Music labels and Spotify will never be about altruism.

Whoever said it was?

Don't fool yourselves. And therefore true convenience may never materialise.

Of course it will, but not because it benefits the consumer. You give people music on-tap, on-demand whenever they want it, you have a price war because there are too many providers in the market, making it so cheap people don't think twice about paying the money. You make having music when you want it as much of a daily requirement to people as always-on internet is now, then once the smaller players have gone out of business and you have one or two providers with a virtual monopoly, you gradually crank the price up knowing that the vast majority will just keep paying, because they've got so used to a situation where they can have music whenever they want it and they won't want to give that up. Sooner or later either the labels buy up the streaming services or the streaming services buy up the labels and then you have one all-encompassing monolith controlling everything from the studio to the headphones (a la Netflix/Amazon). The shareholders will be delighted!

 

[The_Lhc]

I agree with everything you have said. As far as the corporate machine goes, this is perfect, but how long before the public "backlash" against 'non ownership' by buying some other format?

Not as long as they can just hit "buy now" or even just play on their phone and listen to a track instantly they'll never care. "Ownership" is irrelevant as long as whatever you want to listen to is always available. In fact ownership may even come to be seen as a bad thing, being restricted to only being able to listen to what you actually own? No thanks, why would anyone want that when they can listen to any track at any time they like? People will never care about ownership unless and until one of the big players goes out of business and even then I suspect it'll only be if Apple goes bang and people suddenly find they can't listen to their iTunes anymore but that isn't going to happen.

And is that what is possibly happening now with vinyl?

I don't mind paying, as long as I own it.

Yeah, but that's you, and that's me. It's not "them". *Waves hand vaguely out there, somewhere* And there's a lot more of "them" than there is of "us".

 

[Jota180]

You can't clone, copy or pirate vinyl, and it's a fragile perishable media. That makes it good too, from a corporate perspective.

Man, they really shot themselves in the foot with cassettes. Then PCs with CD-Rs came along, followed by mp3 and torrents.

Whoever said that is in for a shock. I can guarantee you there is a very large pirate operation dealing in 'vinyl rips'.

Regarding the format for the future. I think it's here now and it's digital download/streaming. Either selling the download or renting the stream cuts out a lot of production costs, delivery costs, warehousing costs and then selling it over the net cuts out the biggest expense, the middleman music shop who used to take about 50% of the sale price.

I don't want to see a completely cloud based system, I still want to have my music even if it's on hard drives but I can see the appeal for the control freaks in the record companies. A reasonably priced streaming service where you can buy and download albums for a cut price would seem fair.

 

[Andrewjvt]

I hope that vinyl does not become the only format to own in future.

I also dont understand that people think that having your music files on a drive is more effort than physical cds or records.

 

[Jota180]

It's a bit trendy with the hipsters just now. Clearly the marketing men have identified this and are playing on this big style. The buzzwords to be used will be emailed back and forwards and the targeted media outlets will be saturated. Don't listen to the hype and look at the real figures relative to what vinyl used to sell and what digital sells. It's about as niche as niche gets.

 

[ID.]

It will linger like a bad smell in various niches, nooks and crannies. More likely to survive than CD as much due to nostalgia and the mythology that has built up around vinyl and analogue (even people with no interest in hifi tell me that vinyl sounds best and that it sounds warm).

 

[Al ears]

You can't clone, copy or pirate vinyl, and it's a fragile perishable media. That makes it good too, from a corporate perspective.

Agreed, but I don't think it's as fragile as many think, as long as it is looked after. I have records from the early 80s that still sound like new.

I have lps from the 50's that sound like new.

 

[Vladimir]

There were always large pirating operations for CDs but it never hurt the format success. Only when it became widespread to the level of user to user (peer to peer) it truly killed it. What matters to the industry is for me as a buyer not to have a dual well vinyl duplicator or PC vinyl burner, and they will do fine profits wise.

As for vinyl being perishable, that is a fact. With every play the LP grinds down its limited life span. Good thing is unlike tape it can just sit there and not deteriorate as much, so you may find as good as new copy from the 50's even today. But many will warp though, depending on storage conditions. It's both fragile and perishable.

To spin vinyl you have to be ready not only to bear the high entry costs (compared to digital), but also to devote time to seting things up, experimenting, maintanance, cleaning, being carefull, gentle and fiddly with it.

 

[matthewpiano]

It's impossible to reliably predict the future, but as it stands vinyl is a growing but still minority market, and the decline of CD has slowed down massively. I'm happy with that. Both are great formats, and I'd still much rather have either than a download. HMV has also improved dramatically since its new ownership and it is a business I'm very happy to support by purchasing from their stores.

 

[MeanandGreen]

I agree we with matthewpiano we can't predict what is going to survive the test of time, or what trends are going to develop. I am also happy with the fact that vinyl is a growing minority and CD decline has started to plateau. It should keep both formats alive for collectors to enjoy for a long time to come.

I think vinyl being a trendy niche may help preserve it to some extent. If it was to become mainstream again (which I highly doubt), I think there would be a lot of knackered records in circulation on the secondhand market.

Personally I enjoy both of the physical formats and favour them massively over downloads. I download the occasional chart track, but that's it. Albums are always a physical purchase for me. I only use my digital storage for the playback of long or varied playlists. I prefer to play albums physically.

I often prefer taking software out of the equation and just like to play a record or CD, especially when I've just got home after a tiring day and just want an instant music fix.