How long has cd got left

[QuestForThe13thNote]

the last study I saw was a Pwc one about CDs having 5 years left, I think about a year ago. Cd manufacturer Im talking about, due ro rhe viability of the format and declining sales and move of people just to streaming. .

There are millions of cars with CD players in, so it will be a while yet.

The other thing is that new bands rely on sales of signed CDs after gigs to earn money. Take away the merch stall and new bands will struggle. I can see more new bands releasing EPs rather than full CDs.

interesting I was checking out a new car and with the new Ford model of my car, the CD player is now an option and fitted in the glove box. My last car two before mine had tape.

but I think the thing with cd disc manufacture is that once it's demanded at such a low level that it becomes uneconomic to make it (not reaching break even point with machinery costs, material costs, distribution costs etc), it will fade out. Another consideration is computers don't need cd drives with high speed internet. And much of cd popularity in its heyday was driven by the computer world

CD players will continue to be made to satisfy the millions of discs in the market, but the question is when will the format die out. I reckon 5 years tops.

 

[steve_1979]

interesting I was checking out a new car and with the new Ford model of my car, the CD player is now an option and fitted in the glove box. My last car two before mine had tape.

but I think the thing with cd disc manufacture is that once it's demanded at such a low level that it becomes uneconomic to make it (not reaching break even point with machinery costs, material costs, distribution costs etc), it will fade out. Another consideration is computers don't need cd drives with high speed internet. And much of cd popularity in its heyday was driven by the computer world

CD players will continue to be made to satisfy the millions of discs in the market, but the question is when will the format die out. I reckon 5 years tops.

That sounds logical but I think CDs will be around for longer than five years. My guess is that there will steady decline in CD sales that gradually happens over a decade or two rather than production just suddenly stopping within a short time period.

 

[insider9]

CD got decades left. The world as a whole doesn't download neither stream as much as we do in the UK.

Look at what happened to Bluray and DVD. Bluray has been around for over a decade and DVDs are still being released (so I'm told) even when a far superior standard is out.

We haven't got a superior physical standard to CD at present. So we can safely expect CD to last our lifetime.

 

[QuestForThe13thNote]

If you look at this graph and extrapolate for cd over 5 years from where we are now in 2017 I'd say it's fair to think 5 years. And the American revenues are pretty representative of pretty much everywhere.

https://www.whathifi.com/news/vinyl-record-sales-drop-in-2016

 

[steve_1979]

If you look at this graph and extrapolate for cd over 5 years from where we are now in 2017 I'd say it's fair to think 5 years. And the American revenues are pretty representative of pretty much everywhere.

That graph shows a rapid decline in CD sales from 2004 to 2010 but that has started to plateaue out now. The decline is now far more gradual than it was a few years ago.

 

[QuestForThe13thNote]

It looks to me the CDs sales revenue in 2015 is less than half that than in 2010. If you draw a line through the blue part of the graph at its top (blue being cd) from 2010 onwards , and extend the date axis, assuming cd carries on declining as at this current rate, with other formats eating up its share etc (as we know is a continuing trend - look at paid subscriptions increasing), then cd will go around 2020.

 

[steve_1979]

...is that we always seem to get it hilariously wrong.

 

[QuestForThe13thNote]

I'd say we can be pretty sure on CDs decline, like with tape, vhs, laserdisc, Betamax, minidisc etc. Although I hope it stays as long as possible, what's going to happen to record shops?

 

[grimharry]

I hope that while there is a demand then someone will keep supplying

 

[Blacksabbath25]

I personally think cds have years left in them yet it's just a shame that SACDs never managed to take over cds as that was the replacement for cds but as people now do not like keeping physical formats anymore as it's easier to download or stream music instead but your paying every month from £10- £20 every month that's £240 every year for the top streaming sites .

I agree it's a great way of finding new music at a press of a button and in some cases quality is better over CDs but your paying for something that's not yours to own your just borrowing it I download of iTunes I've paid for the albums but they're not really mine .

i have a big collection of CDs and still buy them the ones I've brought they cost me nothing ones your brought them I haven't got to think about a hardrive going wrong were you lose all of your music that you have backed up and then got rid of your CDs yes CD players can go wrong but so can your streamers or if you lost your job and could not afford to pay for a streaming service but I've still got my CDs .

thats my argument for CDs I say long live CDs

Here's a link ....https://www.musicbusinessworldwide.com/digital-album-sales-now-declining-faster-than-cd-in-the-uk/

 

[Al ears]

...is that we always seem to get it hilariously wrong.

I used to operate a DEC PDP11P very similar to that computer........ don't tell anyone though... ;-)

 

[jjbomber]

There are millions of cars with CD players in, so it will be a while yet.

interesting I was checking out a new car and with the new Ford model of my car, the CD player is now an option and fitted in the glove box.

CD players will continue to be made to satisfy the millions of discs in the market, but the question is when will the format die out. I reckon 5 years tops.

Yes, and my sister's Renault doesn't even have the option. However cars last longer than 5 years and so CDs will also hang around longer than that. Just my guess but I'd say 15 years.

 

[CnoEvil]

I'd say we can be pretty sure on CDs decline, like with tape, vhs, laserdisc, Betamax, minidisc etc. Although I hope it stays as long as possible, what's going to happen to record shops?

I think that CDs will last as long as the current middle age folk are around. It's my Daughter's generation and below (she's 25) that don't buy CDs.

Unlike the formats that you listed, CDs remain relevant, as they can be ripped and incorporated into current streaming, as a listening method.

 

[QuestForThe13thNote]

I think the point people are maybe missing though is that the format only occupies its space in a market comparative to what else is available. So maybe if you can buy dvds by post cheaply it reduces the demand for going to the cinema, although this is a bad example with what's going on with love film ATM, but you get my drift I think. Economists say it's the opportunity cost and a market has only a certain total demand across all formats (one we know is shrinking across all formats). People seek out the most cost effective means of getting their music.

so it's not like that people aren't demanding CDs because they don't like keeping the physical formats anymore. It's because, for the mass market at least (which has the most impact on trends), that you can get a Spotify account cheaper than you can buying CDs. That's why people aren't buying CDs. Most people's concern is not that they can't own the music by doing streaming alone.music is more a freely available online commodity today, rather than an ownable format - possibly sadly for audiophiles if we can't own music in cd quality in the same way non audiophiles access allnon cd quality music. Although I do perceive issues where artists jump ship to other streaming firms, affecting your album lists and stored favourites etc.

the irony is in CDs heyday people spent more on CDs on average than they currently do on streaming. But the internet has made music availability and free sharing easier e.g. Free you tube music videos. So this has shrunk the total market.

i visited some friends recently and had a new cd with me, and asked if they would like to rip it if they are interested in the artist. They didn't comment but all got their phones out and went to Spotify to check it out.

We need a format that is yours to own, and that has to be downloads. So I think when CD goes, i sincerely hope it will be replaced by better favouritism in the downloads market (which is struggling at present)

im not talking about what I hope for CDs do survive to obviate these problems where we can't own a cd and if there are no quality ownable downloads, but what I see the trends are doing. I think if streaming firms return more profits we will get more viable quality downloads too, through choice, that will suit everyone as it does seem old fashion to own physical formats nowdays.

 

[iMark]

We still buy CDs, then rip them to go into the iTunes library. In the past I used to make CD copies to play in the car. When we're in England I tend to browse in the charity shops for second hand CDs. Occasionally I will stumble upon an out of print SACD.

We don't play a lot of CDs in the car anymore. On our iPod Nanos we store albums and it's much easier to manage than faffing about with CDs in a car. I also see a big future for offline Spotify. You store a playlists on your phone or tablet and play them offline in the car. The offline playlists are incredibly convienent while travelling.

 

[davidf]

If you look at this graph and extrapolate for cd over 5 years from where we are now in 2017 I'd say it's fair to think 5 years. And the American revenues are pretty representative of pretty much everywhere.

https://www.whathifi.com/news/vinyl-record-sales-drop-in-2016

The CD drop is petering out though, so will certainly last longer than 5 years. I think we've got a couple of decades left yet - many other formats took far longer than they should've to die out - CD is one of the more popular formats and still viable formats that will last much longer than any other defunct digital format.

 

[QuestForThe13thNote]

It's not petering out or stabilising, it's continually going down if you do regression on the graph. The pwc study on cd being obsolete is saying the same thing.

 

[nopiano]

It's not petering out or stabilising, it's continually going down if you do regression on the graph. The pwc study on cd being obsolete is saying the same thing.

So, as usual, Quest, you want us to agree with you. Your post masqueraded as a question, but you already know the answer.

 

[davidf]

It's not petering out or stabilising, it's continually going down if you do regression on the graph. The pwc study on cd being obsolete is saying the same thing.

Yes, it's going down, but you can blatantly see that it's petering out. It's on it's way down like a rollercoaster, and reaching it's lowest point just like a rollercoaster does - if that makes sense. It wouldn't surprise me if it starts rising again.

 

[insider9]

The main question is this.

Are CD sales taking away from downloads and streaming or are they additional sales? If it was the former we would already see a halt being put to it. As they are generating extra profit no one will do anything. It makes no difference if the trend is downwards.

No one will benefit from CD being discontinued unless it's replaced by another physical medium or it takes away from sales of downloads.

 

[stereoman]

Just as it is a magic in Vinyl - the same with CD.

 

[QuestForThe13thNote]

Cd sales declining are obviously seperate to downloads being stable, but I'd like not to need ownable formats to keep it cheap. We just need more streaming services having most music and certainly new stuff as the case, in good quality format, no issues when artists jump ship from the streaming service on music libraries, and cheap. Job done. With cd going and streaming increasing, use of streaming internet to get music, that seems to be the way.

 

[Macspur]

It's not petering out or stabilising, it's continually going down if you do regression on the graph. The pwc study on cd being obsolete is saying the same thing.

So, as usual, Quest, you want us to agree with you. Your post masqueraded as a question, but you already know the answer.

lol!

Mac

www.realmusicnet.wordpress.com

 

[QuestForThe13thNote]

No I wondered if anyone had information to counter what I've learnt and read. Nothing about people agreeing with me. I knew the information I know already, yes, and I like a good debate. But Nopiano seems to agrees with me.

 

[radiorog]

If you look at this graph and extrapolate for cd over 5 years from where we are now in 2017 I'd say it's fair to think 5 years. And the American revenues are pretty representative of pretty much everywhere.

https://www.whathifi.com/news/vinyl-record-sales-drop-in-2016

The CD drop is petering out though, so will certainly last longer than 5 years. I think we've got a couple of decades left yet - many other formats took far longer than they should've to die out - CD is one of the more popular formats and still viable formats that will last much longer than any other defunct digital format.

Looking at the graph, yes, cd sales have reduced dramatically, but it seems they are still,just, the largest source of revenue for music sales. The revenue brought in by downloading and streaming is equally as poor, or worse. I think CDs may well have a place on the market that will never go away. When it comes down to the crunch, some people like a physical format with a nice inlay card to read and touch. If it brings in a profit, it won't go anywhere. They will be able to remarket the cd in the future, and I can see it becoming a higher bit rate than it is now, to keep up with the standard of streaming and download.