Derren Brown - Lottery trick

[Davro83]

Just watched how he predicted the numbers. He is a fantastic illusionist/showman. But i have to say i think his method was complete full of rubbish. I think it was more likely he rigged the machine. He kept saying things like 'obvoiusly i cant admit it, because thats illegal. I would have had to have made replica balls , like these!(holds up identical balls). I would have had to hypnotise the security guards ( he then laughs ). Hypnotising is Derren Browns most famous method!!!

And the fact he reckons there is a sequence in balls coming up. I believe he called it a deep mathmatical random sequence. That everything has. No it doesnt. Every new ball is completely unrelated to the last in lottery and in everything from a roulette wheel to a toss of a coin. The numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 in the lottery coming out 1000 times in a row is exactly the same odds as any numbers coming out every week.

And why didnt he tell the numbers to his volunteer number pickers. He kept them to himself, so he could have used any numbers he wanted. Its not like they could have run off quickly to do the lottery as it shuts at 7.30pm and the draw wasnt till 10:30pm.

Whats peoples opinions. I hope that made sense. I rambled a bit. lol

 

[Frank Harvey]

I watched him predict it, but didn't bother watching how he did it tonight. Knowing it was a trick sort of took all the sting out of it. If he'd said he was going to predict the numbers and not told anyone how he did it, that'd be more interesting. But he's admitted it is a trick and that he was going to tell everyone how he did it. After that, I didn't care.

 

[Andrew Everard]

IMNSHO, tonight's 'reveal' was as much misdirection as the original misdirection. But the David Blaine self-directed doc following it...

 

[The_Lhc]

You missed out on a very interesting program then. "Trick" is really not the right word for it, makes it sound very trivial.

 

[John Duncan]

Missed it. How'd he do it?

 

[Anonymous]

It is fake, it is impossible, you can do it with a split screen very easily. Those people were very guliable IMO.

 

[Andrew Everard]

JohnDuncan:Missed it. How'd he do it?

Psychology, stuff like that. Allegedly...

 

[Anonymous]

@ John Duncan, he doesn't really tell us, he just gives us lies upon lies upon lies.

 

[Anonymous]

It is shame how TV 'brain-washes' us to believe stuff that is impossible. I have never been to keen on Derren Brown, he waffles far to much IMO.

 

[Alec]

Andrew Everard:IMNSHO, tonight's 'reveal' was as much misdirection as the original misdirection. But the David Blaine self-directed doc following it...

Quite so.

Davro 83 - I'd be thinking more along the lines of camera trickery (there were 2 in the room where the reveal happenned), timing...

 

[Andrew Everard]

This YouTuber with too much time on his or her hands thinks they have the real solution

 

[D.J.KRIME]

I am amazed just how many people watched it, if it were possible to prdict the winning numbers (which it clearly isn't) then why would you make a TV program rather than simply buying a ticket.

Personally I find Derren Brown rather irritating.

 

[Anonymous]

Davro83:
Just watched how he predicted the numbers. He is a fantastic illusionist/showman. But i have to say i think his method was complete full of rubbish. I think it was more likely he rigged the machine. He kept saying things like 'obvoiusly i cant admit it, because thats illegal. I would have had to have made replica balls , like these!(holds up identical balls). I would have had to hypnotise the security guards ( he then laughs ). Hypnotising is Derren Browns most famous method!!!

And the fact he reckons there is a sequence in balls coming up. I believe he called it a deep mathmatical random sequence. That everything has. No it doesnt. Every new ball is completely unrelated to the last in lottery and in everything from a roulette wheel to a toss of a coin. The numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 in the lottery coming out 1000 times in a row is exactly the same odds as any numbers coming out every week.

And why didnt he tell the numbers to his volunteer number pickers. He kept them to himself, so he could have used any numbers he wanted. Its not like they could have run off quickly to do the lottery as it shuts at 7.30pm and the draw wasnt till 10:30pm.

Whats peoples opinions. I hope that made sense. I rambled a bit. lol

Exactly my thoughts.

I'm always telling people 1,2,3...etc is as likely as any other set of numbers but they don't believe me. I'm a bit of an armature statistician and psychology grad following a career in psychology, and I find his programme infinitely frustrating. Rigging the machine is one of the more likely explanations, he must think by reviling it would put people off the scent.

Yea, why didn't he tell the volunteers! Its not like they could have acquired a ticket and won, that would have been very suspicious. He didn't even get a volunteer to do the math, this might be where the 'trick' happened. For most people believing him is the heuristic, the shortest and least cognitively demanding explanation, this the method for most of his illusions.

I've been a bit bored so I did a bit of number crunching. His numbers were 2 - 11 - 23 - 28 - 35 and 39. All these numbers are in the top 12 of the most frequent numbers in draws since March. It's more like the top 18 because some numbers frequencies are the same. (23 and 39 in the top 6 and the rest in the top 12) Eyeballing the most recent draws, these normally only include a maximum of 3 or less of this top 18. That seems a little suspicious to me.

 

[Alec]

I think said youtuber has got something.

 

[Alec]

Brisk, I think you're over thinking. Except with your hint that you think he may have actually rigged the machine...im not at all sure waht you're thinking there...he wants you to be thinking it tho.

 

[Anonymous]

Always Occam's razor or Keep it Simple Stupid! (KISS)

I am over thinking it. I'm not one to get involved with any conspiracies. My main point is that the vast majority of people are willing to accept his explanation as the truth, without much logical thought, come on, crowd consciousness this is an insulting explanation. I wanted to hear more about this complex maths.

I feel the same about paranormal experiences, people except some ludicrous theories about ghost or whatever as a shortcut to explanation, instead of a logical one.

 

[Davro83]

I know, i find it so ridiculous that he said its to do with complex maths patterns. And people believe that.So many people just dont seem to understand that there cant possibly be a pattern with the lottery. The amount of times i have said to people that theres just as much chance as the same 6 numbers coming out every single weeek forever, as there is as any numbers coming out. And they say, "no its not. What are the chances of the same numbers coming up again!" " Exactly the same as any other numbers!!!! Every single draw is unrelated to the last draw!." You cant work out whats coming out! Complex maths my *** Derren Brown. But he is a great entertainer. Looking forward to next week where apparently we wont be able to stand up out of our chairs after watching it.

 

[cram]

Davro83:The amount of times i have said to people that theres just as much chance as the same 6 numbers coming out every single weeek forever, as there is as any numbers coming out.

You're wrong on this. Whilst you are correct that every single draw is unrelated. When you start trying to predict that the same numbers will come up across multiple successive draws you are actually increasing the odds.

 

[the record spot]

49 balls is it? So, odds of around 14,000,000 to 1 that, ahem, it could be you.

I never play the lottery, but am interested in what numbers people pick and why; many numbers have made frequent appearances in the draw whereas others less so. Plus, DB's reference to "Wisdom of the Crowd" really isn't quite so far-fetched, though it's not as successful as he makes out when applied in a wider context (see here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds).

It depends on how much you want to believe that he is being truthful. I would have been more impressed had he been independently adjudicated for the duration of this process, but perhaps for the last week or two and definitely for the calculation in selecting the numbers chosen for the live draw.

Anyway, if you think all that could be complicated, you should check out the concepts behind Queuing Theory!

 

[Davro83]

Yeah i have thought about this and i know what you mean, but what im saying is for example, i flick a coin. I have a 50 50 chance of it being heads. If i flick again i have 50 50 chance of it being heads still. If i flick it 100 times i will still have a 50 50 chance of it landing on a head. If it lands on heads 100 times in a row, then i flick it again it will still have a 50 50 chance of it being on heads. The fact it has landed on heads 100 times already has nothing to do with it. Exactly the same principle as the lottery, or the roulette wheel. Its pure chance/luck what numbers will come out.

 

[Anonymous]

heres a sad but true lottery story , i always done the same 6 numbers on the irish lotto , wed and sat nights , 1 , 11 , 12 , 17 , 18 , 21 ... since 2001 , in march 2007 having never won anything , i stopped doing them , and went into a syndicate instead , then on wed 27th june while in the shop i decided to have a go , but it was a quickpick only shop (in ireland some shops are licenced to sell quickpicks only and some can also take numbers of your own choice , ), so i done 6euro quickpick , and left the shop , then i thought id better do my old numbers "just in case " , in another shop just up the road where you can do your own numbers , but i was tired it had been a really hot day , and i thought "there hardly likely to come up ", you can see where this is going , yep ,i checked the teletext at about 9pm (draw is 8pm ) on the lotto plus 2 draw all 6 numbers came up for 250k euros , i cant explain how i felt , use your imagination

, anyway the odds of hitting 6 numbers are 8.5m to 1 , what were the odds of them coming up the one and only time i had done the lotto myself , but had not done my old numbers ???? i bet derren brown couldnt figure that one ......

 

[Andrew Everard]

No, but he'd do a one hour special by the end of which you'd be convinced he had...

 

[Gerrardasnails]

Davro83:Yeah i have thought about this and i know what you mean, but what im saying is for example, i flick a coin. I have a 50 50 chance of it being heads. If i flick again i have 50 50 chance of it being heads still. If i flick it 100 times i will still have a 50 50 chance of it landing on a head. If it lands on heads 100 times in a row, then i flick it again it will still have a 50 50 chance of it being on heads. The fact it has landed on heads 100 times already has nothing to do with it. Exactly the same principle as the lottery, or the roulette wheel. Its pure chance/luck what numbers will come out.

You were right the first time too.

 

[cram]

Gerrardasnails:You were right the first time too.

I know i'm being nit picky and anal etc. but he wasn't right. He said "The amount of times i have said to people that theres just as much chance as the same 6 numbers coming out every single weeek forever, as there is as any numbers coming out."

Baring the machine breaking done it is absolutely guaranteed that a set of number will come out. The odds that it is the same set of numbers that come out forever is infinitesimally small, which is my way of saying I can't be bothered to calcuate it.

Lets take a very simple example. I predict that two tosses of a coin will both yield a head. Ignorning the statistical possibility of landing on the edge, the odds if me being correct are 1 iin 4 because there are four possible combinations. The odds of me being correct on any individual toss of the coin are 1 in 2 - so predicting across multiple interations is an whole different order of magnitude.

 

[Anonymous]

Derren Who?????????????